Tampa Bay Bucs 2009 Draft - Witty Librarian's Predictions

April Draft Predictions (updated 3/31/2009)
Compensatory picks have been dished out: The Bucs got zilch. Which, given the track record Tampa has with lower-round picks, isn't that bad a deal. :)

First-Round	19
Needs	WR, DT, RB
Analysis	The Bucs biggest problem over the years has been on offense: mostly, the lack of one. While defense has been the pride of the line, the Bucs simply haven't found an above-decent offensive package - QB, RB, WR, O-line - across the board. The closest we'd come to a decent offense was the 2002 Super Bowl lineup, and that was with an above-average journeyman QB (Brad Johnson), a RB that didn't impress (Michael Pittman), a FB that was pretty much our only Red Zone weapon (Mike Alstott), and a trio of WRs (Keyshawn, Keenan, JJ) of whom only Keyshawn could be considered an All-Pro caliber talent. We've had a revolving door of QBs since then, diminishing returns on finding any decent WR talent via the draft, the loss of our running game to retirement and injuries, etc. The Bucs are now faced with a massive rebuilding project: new offensive coordinator, new starting QB (either one of our benchwarmers or a yet-signed FA), a newly signed FA running back, a traded TE with possible locker room issues. The only good news is that 1) our offensive line for the most part is staying intact, and there's enough talent there to feel good about things, and 2) we've kept our top WR Antonio Bryant and re-signed Michael Clayton, who's had flashes of talent but needs to prove himself with this second chance. The one thing still missing on the roster is - to borrow a baseball term - a Home Run hitter. A guy who can, any time on the field at will, make a huge scoring play that opens up the game. Either that's an unstoppable RB or an unstoppable WR. That's where the Bucs need to look. At the 19th spot on the draft, one name may still be on the board: WR Percy Harvin. Playmaker. The UF coaches even used him as a straight-up running back just so they could get him the ball more often. Explosive speed, eager to make plays. As a Florida gamewatcher (yes I'm alum and yes I'm biased) I never saw him ease up or take plays off. The biggest knocks on him have been the injuries, and that he's had issues getting coached and getting along with others in the locker room. But he knows what it takes to be a winner, and at least for the first few years he's gonna want to impress. The risk is high, but so is the reward if he turns out as good as his talents suggest. If Harvin's unavailable, the Bucs should look for a down-field speed guy like Darrius Heyward-Bey of Maryland. UPDATE: I'm still keen on the Bucs selecting Harvin. Seriously, we need a game-changing talent on offense and he's the best possible choice at that point in the draft. One argument against drafting a WR is the question the team has at QB: however, I'm content McCown could have the arm strength to throw as deep as needed. There's been buzz about the Bucs taking a gamble on a QB pick, but rookie QBs and early success are a rare combination (even Peyton Manning started slow). I'd rather have someone with the smarts to throw it well over someone with the power yet throws the ball to the wrong spots. If the Bucs DO go with QB (Josh Freeman is the name bandied aboot), this will officially be a rebuilding year and we fans should expect at best a 6-10 season... actually a better season would be 0-16 so we can secure a top-overall pick. >:)

PICK:	WR	Percy Harvin, Florida
Second-Round	TRADED
Needs	DT, RB, CB
Analysis	This spot traded to Cleveland for TE Kellen Winslow. Winslow is a First-Round quality veteran who's still young enough to be of long-term value. Questions swirl about Winslow's health, and about his attitude (although his fights with front office people could be excused because, after all, it's the fricking Cleveland Browns an organization that almost makes the Detroit Lions look well-run). If he were a draft pick, he'd be of great value as a Second Rounder, even with the risk attached.

PICK:	NADA	TE Kellen Winslow (From Cleveland)
Third-Round	81
Needs	DT, LB, CB
Analysis	Almost every move the Bucs have made to add talent during FA is on offense: major cuts on defense took place, especially with the booting of our All-Hero Derrick Brooks and the loss of DT Haye to the Titans. The Bucs NEED serious upgrading at both the DT and OLB positions, with DT depth and quality of higher concern. By the Third Round you've definitely missed out on the no-brainer picks and you're looking at raw-talent or high-risk players. For DT talent, it's usually guys who need to bulk up a little more and/or improve their guard-shedding skills. From scouting reports, Gill out of Northwestern has room to develop but has been consistent and effective at the college level. Just one thing to note: last draft a lot of DTs and DEs went very quickly in the First Round, there's a good chance teams are figuring out to improve their frontline talents and there may be another run on D-line guys before Day Two. UPDATE: Nothing during FA has changed my mind about the Bucs needing to stock up on D-linemen this draft. Word is the Bucs want big and bulky up front, something that Gill doesn't much have: thing is, by the Third Round he'll still be the best possible pick to take.

PICK:	DT	John Gill, Northwestern
Fourth-Round	120
Needs	DE, CB
Analysis	UPDATE: I originally went with the Bucs taking OLB at the Fourth spot, but with the FA acquisition of Angelo Crowell and the move of S Philips to OLB the need is no longer there. Now, we need Safety depth. But the DE spot remains a big question mark as well. This is where I'm making a small change in my draft recommendation: I'm moving DE Will Davis from my Fifth Round spot up to my Fourth Round. All apologies to South Florida's Tyrone McKenzie. Hope a good team not in the NFC South drafts ye.

PICK:	DE	Will Davis, Illinois
Fifth-Round	155
Needs	S, CB
Analysis	UPDATE: Originally I had Davis going here. The shift on defensive needs from OLB to DE and S changed that, and now the team has to look at either a Strong Safety type that can step in as a decent back-up or a Corner to help with nickel duties. From the scouting reports I'm reading a good choice for Safety here could be Reshard Langford of Vandy, maybe also Jamarca Sanford out of Ole Miss. I'm gonna gamble that our starters for Corner are okay and we can take care of CB needs next round...

PICK:	S	Reshard Langford, Vanderbilt
Sixth-Round	191
Needs	CB, WR
Analysis	Part of me is wondering if we need a low-end corner added to the roster, but again depth concerns and even special teams needs ought to be considered. I'm doing this preliminary mockery draft even as the Free Agency period isn't halfway done, so the Bucs could bring back Buchanon and/or bring in veteran talent, so going with a CB here might not happen... UPDATE: Buchanon wasn't in the cards for us: instead Torrie Cox was. Oy vey...

PICK:	CB	Kevin Barnes, Maryland
Seventh-Round	217, 229, 233
Needs	Any
Analysis	Under Chucky's regime, the late round picks were almost always duds, barely surviving to Practice Squad level. One hopes the new regime of Morris will be better developing the newbies, especially with all these late round selections to work with... These are mostly whim picks: looking at adding depth to the WR and DT slots, and with selecting a local USF talent with Taurus Johnson (what, I should favor UMiami kids? ha!). For O-line long-term prospects either a Center or Tackle will take care of depth needs there.

PICK:	C	Brett Helms, LSU
PICK:	WR	Taurus Johnson, South Florida
PICK:	DT	Adrian Grady, Louisville

This will be Raheem Morris' first draft as Bucs HC (and new GM Mark Dominik's as well), and as such I can't really guess how he's going to look at the spots on his team he wants filled with rookies and long-term developments. Part of me thinks that given the Glazers' firing of Gruden because he failed to improve the offense his tenure, Morris may go against his background as a Defensive coach and look to secure a lot of Offensive talent, and then rely on his coaching skills (?) to ensure the Bucs' Defense steps up with the guys he already knows from his being coordinator on that side of the ball.

Past this there's not much else to say except SEE YA AT THE DRAFT PARTY.

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